Skip to content
Tiran Rothman

Behavioral finance

Behavioral Finance & Investor Psychology

Why intelligent people make predictable financial mistakes — and what markets reveal about attention, risk, incentives and human decision making.

By Dr. Tiran Rothman, updated October 2026

The short answer

Behavioral finance studies how psychological biases, limited attention, social influence and decision rules affect financial choices and market outcomes. Dr. Tiran Rothman’s research and applied work connect these mechanisms to investor behavior, valuation, market reactions and long-term financial decision making.

What behavioral finance adds to traditional finance

Traditional finance is powerful because it gives us disciplined ways to think about risk, return, diversification and valuation. Behavioral finance adds a second layer: the people making those decisions do not process information perfectly, and they do not always react consistently. Attention is scarce, losses can feel more important than equivalent gains, recent events can dominate memory, and social signals can alter what appears attractive or safe.

The practical implication is not that markets are “irrational” in a simple sense. It is that market outcomes emerge from the interaction between information, incentives, institutions and human behavior. That interaction can create recurring patterns without making every individual or every price predictable.

Four recurring mechanisms

Attention and salience

Investors cannot process every available signal. Highly visible news, dramatic price moves and salient narratives receive disproportionate attention. This can affect trading intensity, the speed with which information is incorporated and the tendency to extrapolate from recent events.

Framing, reference points and loss sensitivity

Financial decisions are often evaluated relative to a reference point: a purchase price, a previous portfolio high, an expected return or a social benchmark. The same economic outcome can therefore feel different depending on how it is framed. This matters for holding losing positions, realizing gains, taking risk and evaluating financial progress.

Would you take this bet?

A fair coin is flipped once. Decide whether you would play. Most people refuse a bet until the possible gain is well above the possible loss — even when the odds are exactly even.

Offer 1 of 7
Heads, you win
$100
Tails, you lose
$100

Herding and social information

Other investors’ behavior can itself become information. Following a crowd is not always irrational: when information is costly, observing others may be useful. The problem begins when social proof replaces independent analysis and a feedback loop develops between attention, price movement and participation.

Overconfidence and narrative certainty

Investors and executives frequently underestimate uncertainty around forecasts. A compelling story can make a range of possible outcomes feel narrower than it is. Scenario analysis, explicit base rates and pre-defined decision rules can reduce this problem.

From theory to better decisions

Behavioral finance is most useful when it changes the decision process. In investing, that may mean separating portfolio policy from short-term market emotion, using rebalancing rules and testing an investment thesis against disconfirming evidence. In corporate finance, it can mean distinguishing a valuation model from the narrative used to sell it, or stress-testing management assumptions before a financing decision.

In personal finance, the same logic applies to consumption, saving and financial freedom. A plan that is mathematically optimal but behaviorally impossible is not a good plan. Sustainable systems are designed around the way people actually make decisions.

Research themes

Rothman’s research interests include investor reactions to information, behavioral patterns in capital markets and the way financial systems retain, lose and rebuild knowledge. The broader question is how individual decision rules interact with institutions and market structure to create system-level adaptation.

Primary & verifying sources

Related topics

Let’s talk.

Investment, advisory, board, expert opinion and speaking opportunities, worldwide.